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Political risk

Behavioural insights for understanding modern warfare, security challenges, & strategic decision-making

Why Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland May Have Been a Diplomatic Misstep: Analytical Commentary
Israel became the first UN member state to recognise Somaliland…
Terrorism in South Africa (Part 1): Low Frequency, High Ambiguity
South Africa’s terrorism risk is often dismissed because mass-casualty attacks…
Wagner After Prigozhin: Proxy Force and State Power in Africa
Wagner’s role in Africa did not end with Prigozhin —…
The Private Armies of a Fragmenting Continent: PMCs, Sovereignty, and the Illusion of Control
As African states confront deepening security fragmentation, private military companies…
Africa’s New Security Geometry: How Substate Actors & Proto-States are Changing the Continent
A detailed analysis of Africa’s evolving security landscape, showing how…
Africa’s Quiet Power Struggle: RSG Interview with Dr Joan Swart
A brief RSG interview with Dr Joan Swart exploring Africa’s…
Western Cape 2025/26: What Comes Back, What’s Spent Here — and What Doesn’t
Dive into Western Cape tax and expenditure: explore cash transfers,…
The Western Cape’s Economic Weight: What the GDP Says
Uncover the Western Cape GDP and how it contributes to…
An independent Western Cape can and must secure its borders
An independent Western Cape is both capable and obligated to…